Highlights of Economic Survey 2010-11

Following are the highlights of Economic Survey 2010 – 11:
(a) Economy expected to grow at 8.6% in 2010-11 and 9 per cent in next fiscal
(b) Growth broad based with rebound in Agriculture, continued momentum in manufacturing and private services
(c) Fundamentals strong with Savings & Investments up, exports rising rapidly and inflation falling
(d) Agriculture likely to grow at 5.4% in 2010-11;
(e) Industrial output grows by 8.6% ; manufacturing sector registers 9.1%
(f) Exports in April-December 2010 up by 29.5 %
(g) Imports in April – December 2010 up by 19%
(h) Trade gap narrowed to US $ 82.01 bn in April-December 2010
(i) 59% rise in Net Bank Credit
(j) Social programme spending stepped up by 5 percentage points of GDP over past 5 years
(k) 9.7% growth of GDP at market prices
(l) Inflation expected to be 1.5 per cent higher than what it would be if we were not on growth turnpike
(m) Production of foodgrains estimated at 232.1 mn tonnes
(n) Forex Reserves estimated at US$ 297.3 bn
(o) Gross Fiscal Deficit stands at 4.8% of GDP down from 6.3% last year.

Reform Agenda: Economic Survey 2010 - 11
The following reforms have been suggested by Economic Survey 2010-11 for overall growth of economy.
(a) Better convergence of the Schemes to avoid duplications and leakage and to ensure benefits reach to the targeted groups.
(b) Private sector participation in social sectors, such as health and education in the form of public-social-private partnership could be one of the possible alternatives for supplementing the on-going efforts of the Government.
(c) Huge capacity addition in infrastructure in a time bound manner.
(d) Urgent need to streamline land acquisition and environment clearance for infrastructure projects.
(e) Bringing parity between the compensation package admissible under the Land Acquisition Act, 1894 and that applicable to land acquisition under the National Highways Act, 1956.
(f) A National Forest Land Bank, with clear paper work and titles to reduce approval time for forest clearance.
(g) Investment in building managerial and technical capabilities of executing agencies at par with the private sector is crucial.
(h) Second Green Revolution with technological break-through in agricultural sector.
(i) Prioritisation of targeted development of rainfed area and effective marketing links be ensured for better returns to the farmers.
(j) Further improvements in the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme suggested such as shifting to permanent asset building and infrastructure development activities, reducing transaction costs, better monitoring and extension of the scheme to urban areas.
(k) Efficient taxation of goods and services by a new GST.
(l) Need to explore avenues for increasing investment in infrastructure through a combination of power investment, PPPs and occasionally exclusive private investment wherever possible.

Economic Survey Prediction for Agriculture 2010-11
“Things are looking bright in the current year with a relative good monsoon and the agriculture sector is expected to grow at 5.4% as per the 2010-11 advance estimates (AE) . There is a marked improvement in the gross capital formation (GCF) also in agriculture sector.” This has been observed by the Economic Survey presented in the Lok Sabha today by the Finance Minister Shri Pranab Mukherjee. Underlining the importance of the agricultural sector in the Indian Economy, the Survey says that the agriculture sector needs to grow at 8.5% during 2011-12 to achieve the Plan target of average 4 per cent growth per year.

The Survey points out that the Increased Minimum Support Price (MSP) along with various other steps taken by the Government have resulted in higher levels of food-grains. While the economic cost of wheat and rice has continuously gone up, the issue price has been kept unchanged since 1st July, 2002. The country has made great strides towards increasing food grains production. In spite of that the agriculture sector is at a cross roads with rising demand for food items and relatively slower supply response in many commodities resulting frequent spikes in food inflation.

The Survey says that increasing agriculture production and productivity is a necessary condition not only for ensuring national food security but also for sustaining the high levels of growth. Concerted and focused efforts are required for addressing the challenge of stagnating productivity levels in agriculture. It suggests a holistic approach, including renewed agricultural research, dissemination of technology, better inputs such as quality seeds, fertilizers and modern irrigation facilities. Specially rice and wheat, the Survey says that given the constraints in area expansion there is a need for further research to boost production and productivity. Similarly, a technological breakthrough in pulse production is necessary to keep pace with rising demand. Significant increase in the area under sugarcane and cotton suggests some shift in the cropping pattern in Kharif 2010, the Survey observes.

Expressing concern over stagnation of capital investment in the sector, it says both private and public sector should enhance the investment in agriculture sector in a sustained way. A targeted development of rainfed area should be prioritized and effective marketing links should be ensured for better returns to the farmers. The Government should also encourage in food processing, cold chain and handling and packaging of processed food, the Survey says.

Taking a note of declining per capita availability of foodgrains, the Survey suggests thrust on horticulture products. In view of increasing pressure on livestock products due to rising level of income, a long term strategy should be evolved to increase the production of these items. It also says that the issue of efficient food stocks management of and uploading of stocks in time needs urgent attention.

Survey Calls for A Second Green Revolution
Recalling the pioneer work by agriculture scientists and farmers to achieve a breakthrough in the agriculture sector in the 1960s, the Survey observes that the country has not witnessed any big technological breakthrough in agriculture since then. The food safety net for each and every of the over a billion citizens requires enhanced agriculture production and productivity in the form of a Second Green Revolution.

The Survey points out that the country is likely to achieve a more production of wheat (81.47 million tonnes), pulses (16.51 million tonnes) and cotton (33.93 million bales of 170 kg each) this year in spite of drought in some States, cyclones, unseasonal and heavy rains and cold wave and frost condition in several parts. Still, special attention is required for achieving higher production and productivity levels in pulses, oilseeds, fruits and vegetables, which had remained untouched in the First Green Revolution but are essential for nutritional security. It suggests efforts to achieve high production of poultry, meat and fisheries.

Stressing on the development of infrastructure support in agriculture and allied sector, the Survey says that the relative weak supply responses to price hike in agriculture commodities, specially food articles in recent brings into the focus the Central question of efficient supply management and more investment in agriculture and allied sectors with the right strategies, policies and intervention.